(Continued from Part 1)
Disruption may be the short-cut to catch-up growth for those emerging markets that can harness the corresponding technology, platforms and ecosystems. Building on Gerschenkron’s dictum on the advantages of backwardness[1], emerging economies may borrow and adapt the technological advances and business models from leading corporates and national economies to advance closer to the technological frontier and become a key element in the global and regional value chains. Furthermore, with a critical level of digital inclusion attained and by engaging more actively in business model innovation (BMI), emerging economies may significantly increase their share of market disruption in the world economy, while also raising the intensity and frequency of such episodes. Resorting to the more accessible gateways to market disruption that prioritize BMI and to some degree bypass the high investment requirements in product innovation could provide a complementary modernization track for developing economies.
The capability of EM to engage in market disruption is likely to rise as their integration into the global economy advances together with a widening array of partnerships and alliances that allow for significantly higher scaling capabilities[2]. Across sectors one of the areas targeted by some of the emerging markets such as El Salvador is the financial sector and the possibility to create new markets/financial instruments via exploiting the regulatory arbitrage associated with restrictions on the crypto sector in some of the largest economies. Emerging markets may also engage in combining capital investment, product innovation and BMI to optimize the effects of market disruption; there is also the possibility of emerging economies replicating China’s earlier path of combining reverse engineering with scaling either via the large domestic market or through the diversified network of partnerships and alliances. The array of possible disruption strategies and frameworks is wide open for emerging market economies, with sectoral, regional and global disruption impulses likely to be increasingly generated by those developing economies whose scaling capabilities and BMI strategies improve over time.
In mapping the potential disrupt economies one of the possible guides may be the WIPO Global Innovation Index (GII), in which the list of top-3 innovators globally includes Switzerland, Sweden and the US; for emerging markets the top 3 economies include China, UAE and Malaysia[3]. Another reference point is the AlixPartners Disruption index, which in 2025 featured China, Switzerland, Germany and UAE among the most disrupted regions and countries of the world economy[4]. The AlixPartners 2025 Disruption report in particular states that “Normal is over. Disruption is the new economic driver” and identifies state regulation as one of the key risks for corporates in terms of their disruption capabilities[5]. With disruption on the rise in terms of the 2025 aggregate AlixPartners index, corporate CEOs within the report associate the key opportunities of disruption with pervasive connective technology infrastructure (71%), AI and machine learning (64%), technological advances in materials (56%)[6].
There may be other rankings employed in identifying the disrupt economies of the future, including the WEF’s Competitiveness ranking as well as stats on the R&D outlays as a share of GDP by country. The broader picture that emerges from this plethora of rankings and stats is that there is a range of economies and country categories/groups that could lead the disruption of the global economy. These may include the BRICS economies (China, South Africa, Brazil and India all among the leaders in their sub-regions in terms of innovation (WIPO GII)), there are the large “incumbents” (US one of the leaders globally, Germany and the UK among the leaders in Europe), as well as small open economies (Switzerland a global leader in innovation, Singapore coming on top in the WIPO index in Asia, UAE among the leaders in the MENA region). Some of these country groups are already starting to form platforms for technological cooperation, with BRICS in particular embarking on greater policy coordination in the AI space[7]. Other country groups, including the small economies that lead innovation and digitalization in their respective regions such as Singapore, UAE, Switzerland, Mauritius, Uruguay, could also form “disrupt platforms” for building innovation and scaling capabilities across the global markets.
In the end, a race in the world economy that is built around technological and business model innovation may be the much-needed new paradigm to emerge from the current period of extreme geopolitical risks and neo-mercantilistic protectionism. The benefit of this disruption paradigm for the global economy lies in the greater focus on the technological basis for competition in the global economy, with the future modes of market disruption rather than ideological divisions rooted in the past stoking competition. The result is a system that is centered on innovation, with the emergence of new breakout nations, new ecosystems, new start-ups and platforms as well as corporate and national economy unicorns. This is the modernization path that may increasingly feature a rising number of emerging market economies whose ambitions in creating new markets, new products and financial market instruments may open a crucial gateway to higher global economic growth.
P.S.: The leading “disrupt economies” would do well to stay ahead at the very limits of the technology possibility frontier via continuously generating disruption models, but perhaps an even better approach would be to direct some of the “disruption gains” to regional and global partners across the world economy. In other words, how do the disrupt economies share the dividends of disruption to keep the system stable in expansion mode? Such sharing of the spoils of disruption would have to go beyond the mere ODA assistance and would have to target the integration of partner economies into value-added chains as well as trade/investment alliances and ecosystems.
Another point is on the importance of regulation that becomes akin to a key competitive advantage – in an economy centered on disruption, crackdowns on the leading tech companies or other corporates that secure the leading position of the country in the technological race may undermine the capabilities to stay close to the technological possibilities frontier. The exigencies of the disruption race would push the state and the largest corporates towards greater coordination, perhaps even with the leading national companies becoming increasingly important in driving and negotiating the country’s international economic accords.
This in turn points to some of the risks associated with a world economy that is increasingly driven by disruption, with the dangers of such a paradigm associated with the risks of excessive proximity between the state and big businesses. Further fragilities include greater inequality across countries given the criticality of an advanced development of the digital economy (something that greatly differs across countries and regions, with some parts of the global economy experiencing significant “digital gaps”) as one of the key gateways to pursuing disruption strategies. There are also the dangers of market monopolization by disruptors, particularly if they acquire capabilities to scale their strategies and market power across regions and sectors.
[1] https://www.ide.go.jp/library/English/Publish/Periodicals/De/pdf/64_04_06.pdf
[2] This is yet another facet to the benefits of consolidating the financial platforms as well as the economic network of ecosystems (that include regional arrangements) of the Global South as this enables developing economies to scale progressively their innovations across the global economy.
[3] https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/global-innovation-index-2024/assets/67729/2000%20Global%20Innovation%20Index%202024_WEB3lite.pdf
[4] https://www.alixpartners.com/media/43nndqfg/2025-alixpartners-disruption-index.pdf
[5] https://www.alixpartners.com/media/43nndqfg/2025-alixpartners-disruption-index.pdf
[6] https://www.alixpartners.com/media/43nndqfg/2025-alixpartners-disruption-index.pdf
[7] https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-07-09/BRICS-leaders-issue-landmark-statement-on-global-AI-governance-1ESdCUbQNxK/index.html
Yaroslav Lissovolik, Founder, BRICS+ Analytics
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