A pier is a disappointed bridge; yet stare at it long enough and you can dream it to the other side of the Channel. – J. Barnes
In our earlier forays into exploring the scope for oceanic platforms we noted the already high degree of institutionalization of regional economic cooperation in some of the segments of the Atlantic-Pacific-Indian ocean triad as well as the scope for replicating the advances in the Pacific to other regions of the world economy. But apart from the existing institutional frameworks across such oceanic platforms, there may be another element facilitating the positive spillovers and greater integration across these maritime regions of the world economy, namely bi-oceanic bridge economies. These economies may become the key potential beneficiaries and driving forces behind the further crystallization of the oceanic platforms as well as their cross-continental integration.
The bi-oceanic connection
In exploring the connectivity potential within the Atlantic-Pacific-Indian (API) ocean triad, the key bi-oceanic bridge economies across the respective oceanic pairs include:
- Atlantic-Pacific connection: Canada, US, Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Colombia, Argentina, Chile,
- Pacific-Indian ocean connection: Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia
- Atlantic-Indian ocean connection: South Africa
The array of bi-oceanic economies that may act as bridges within the Atlantic-Pacific-Indian ocean triad could be expanded to include those countries whose bi-oceanic reach extends via the marginal seas. This is the case with Russia with respect to the Atlantic-Pacific connectivity (making Russia the only Atlantic-Pacific oceanic bridge economy outside of the Western Hemisphere) – via the Baltic and the Black sea on the Atlantic side. Another case is Egypt that connects the Atlantic and the Indian ocean basins via the marginal seas of the Mediterranean and the Red sea respectively.
Overall, Western Hemisphere economies dominate the Atlantic-Pacific connectivity segment, with the high number of such economies providing scope for potential replication of the Pacific integration frameworks across the Atlantic. Some of the linkages across these bridge economies in the Western hemisphere are well institutionalized, with Chile and Mexico forming part of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Canada, US and Mexico being part of the USMCA bloc, and all the 5 Central American economies being part of the SICA platform.
The Pacific-Indian ocean connectivity track brings together 3 regional bridge economies that are all members in the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) platform, APEC and RCEP. Malaysia and Australia are also members of the CPTPP, with Indonesia actively pursuing accession into this platform. Hence, there does appear to be substantial scope to forge greater connectivity across the Indo-Pacific, with the longer-term prospects of such an effort to a significant degree dependent on the evolution of China-India economic ties.
As regards the Indo-Atlantic connectivity, South Africa with its positive dynamic in the economic relations with India and Brazil plays a crucial role in this segment. The India-Brazil-South Africa (IBSA) (or the extended IBSA+/IBSA+Indonesia format) connection could provide the backbone for the future connectivity between the Indian ocean and the Atlantic regions.
The PIERs of the Global Economy
In terms of global welfare and sustainable development, it is important that the formation of such oceanic platforms does not result in greater imbalances in the world economy, most notably between the inland/landlocked regions and the coastal regions that could become the main beneficiaries of such maritime integration impulses. Furthermore, as we have observed in the past, in terms of sequencing, oceanic integration needs to follow the intra-continental integration advances in order to avoid the potential tensions and contradictions between these two integration modalities. All this calls for closer coordination in the formation and connectivity of oceanic platforms not only with the bridge economies of the respective oceanic basins, but also with the regional integration blocs that may serve as crucial intermediaries between landlocked and coastal economies.
Without the integration of landlocked economies and inward regions into the emerging framework of oceanic platforms, the world economy risks reverting to the pattern of greater concentration of economic activity in coastal territories – a factor that would render the global economic system more vulnerable to the effects of climate change and rising sea levels. According to Xiaoming Jin et al (2023), “the proportion of GDP in “near regions” (accounting for 18.43% of the world’s landmass) decreased from 67.25% in 2000 to 63.02% in 2018, while that of “far regions” (accounting for 81.57% of the world’s landmass) increased from 32.75% in 2000 to 36.98% in 2018”[1]. Interestingly, Africa was the only major region to feature an opposite trend to the global pattern in 2000-2018 in terms of the GDP share of coastal regions[2] – a factor that argues in favor of according greater attention to the integration of the region’s landlocked economies into emerging platforms for economic cooperation.
In advancing greater integration of landlocked regions/countries into the world economy, it may be also important to build their economic ties not only with the coastal economies/oceanic bridge economies, but also with the trans-regional/trans-continental economies that through logistical connectivity provide greater optionality in terms of supply/trade routes. In our research, we referred to these trans-continental/trans-regional economies as TICKERs – Turkey, Indonesia, Colombia, Kazakhstan, Egypt, Russia[3]. This is a group composed entirely of emerging markets and it includes the largest landlocked economy in the world – Kazakhstan as well as economies from all main regions of the Global South – Asia, Latin America and Africa. Furthermore, it turns out that the group of economies that are both trans-continental and bi-oceanic is quite exclusive and is confined to just Panama, Indonesia, Egypt (taking into account the marginal seas connection), Russia[4]. These economies as a group may take on the PIERs acronym and can serve as focal points/bridges in the trans-continental and oceanic connectivity. Just as a physical pier provides for goods from inland regions to be loaded onto ocean-bound vessels, the PIERs countries provide logistical gateways and maritime access to neighboring landlocked nations (Egypt for landlocked regions of East and Central Africa, Russia for Central Asia).
Within the PIERs group, Indonesia and Russia have some of the longest coastlines in the world (nearly 55 thousand km and 37 thousand km respectively) – this makes these economies number 3 and number 4 globally in terms of the length of the coastline[5]. At the same time Russia possesses the longest continuous mainland coastline on Earth, with more than 60% of the coastline concentrated in the Arctic basin. Compared to the Indonesia-Russia pair, the connectivity role of Panama and Egypt is mostly enhanced via their respective canals, with the Panama and the Suez canals accounting for up to 3-3.5% and 12-15% of global seaborne trade respectively[6]. Of note as well is that 3 out of 4 PIERs economies are core BRICS members.
Conclusion
Overall, a look at the presence of bridge economies within the framework of oceanic platforms suggests that the greatest scope for closer connectivity may be attained in the Atlantic-Pacific and the Indian-Pacific oceanic segments. The Pacific basin with its advanced frameworks in regional and mega-regional economic integration may provide the basis for positive spillover effects into the Indian ocean rim and Atlantic regions of the world economy via regional blocs such as ASEAN/RCEP and SICA/USMCA/CELAC respectively. The path to building such connectivity is a long one, however, with the oceanic platforms in the Atlantic and the Indian ocean yet to develop institutionally to encompass trade and investment liberalization. Furthermore, such connectivity will inevitably run into difficulties in the sphere of standards/norms harmonization and geopolitical headwinds (for example competing visions of the Indo-Pacific). Notwithstanding these headwinds, the goal of forming a unified maritime space that expands the scope for environmental policy coordination and trade/investment liberalization may open up new pathways to economic diplomacy and market openness in a world economy that is increasingly constrained by the gridlock afflicting global institutions and some of the intra-continental integration projects.
Within the emerging framework of maritime-inland connectivity, the PIERs group could play a crucial role and explore gateways to creating partnerships (PIER+ format) with other economies that are seeking to build reliable supply and logistical chains in the world economy. Forming cooperative platforms that bring together trans-continental, bi-oceanic and landlocked/in-between economies (Nepal, Bolivia, etc.) would provide greater possibilities for exploiting the synergies between oceanic and continental integration as well as in supplying landlocked regions with greater optionality in shipping their goods to global markets.
[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02234-4
[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-023-02234-4
[3] https://brics-plus-analytics.org/stitching-up-the-world-economy/
[4] Russia is tri-oceanic given its gateway into the Arctic ocean and the Northern Sea route connectivity
[5] https://www.worldatlas.com/oceans/countries-with-the-longest-coastline.html
[6] https://sgmarineagency.com/worlds-key-maritime-straits-chokepoints/
Yaroslav Lissovolik, Founder, BRICS+ Analytics
Image by TimHill via Pixabay